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RBI MPC to pause Nifty rally or index to surpass 17600? Check 8 things to know before market opens on 6 April

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Moreover, the marginal standing facility and bank rates have also been left unchanged at 6.75 per cent. The latest cut could lift oil prices by $10 per barrel, the head of investment firm Pickering Energy Partners told Reuters. Goldman Sachs has also lifted its forecast for Brent to $95 a barrel by the end of the year and to $100 for 2024. According to an ET Poll, nine of 10 economists expect a 25 bps rate hike. With respect to rate-sensitive stocks, State Bank of India – India’s largest lender – gained over 1.5 per cent and was also trading as a top Nifty50 and Sensex gainer after the RBI’s policy decision.

“We could see a prolonged pause after that, with rates being data dependent, particularly with risks to inflation in terms of monsoon and also uncertainties about growth,” Kapur said. “But there is a good 80-basis point favourable base effect from March that will ease inflation.” Recent unseasonal rains and a shock production cut announced by OPEC+ might have changed the MPC calculations to pause rate hikes. Recent unseasonal rains and a shock production cut announced by OPEC+ might have changed the RBI MPC calculations to pause rate hikes.

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In the aftermath of the COVID, India did achieve that quite effectively. However, today when the RBI is trying to curtail inflation, that is not supported with a rapid fall in the fiscal deficit. Such a coordinated action would have actually helped the monetary policy to be more effective. In that situation, I would expect inflation to decline below 5.5% and the projections would be that it would fall even further. The real interest rate would then rise well above the 1% level that is perhaps needed to glide inflation towards the target of 4%. The MPC would then need to deliberate hard about the appropriateness of the growth sacrifice implicit in such a high real interest rate.

  • The near term upside targets for the Nifty is around and next levels for the next one week.
  • By Yasin Ebrahim Investing.com — The S&P 500 slumped Monday as further data pointing to further signs of inflation pressures weighed on sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next…
  • Our research team is composed of some highly qualified research professionals, their expertise range across sectors.
  • Since May last year, the central bank has increased the rate by 250 bps over inflation concerns.
  • Speaking about global factors, RBI Governor Das said that the global economy facing a renewed phase of turbulence.

“The RBI’s pause is like Sachin’s stroke on a tricky pitch but with eyes set in and having the luxury of hitting the ball wherever he wanted. The market expects the RBI to fetch maximum run and win the match on inflation and growth, no matter which direction they hit the ball,” said Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company. The RBI Governor further added that the repo rate has been hiked by 250 bps in the last 11 months, though the effective rate hike, has been 290 bps. Of the total 36 respondents, 20 expected the central bank to continue its ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance, while the remaining 16 predict a shift towards a neutral stance. However, one thing comes out pretty clearly from the MPC discussion as captured in the minutes.

Oil prices eased in early Asian trade on Thursday after weak U.S. job openings data signalled cooling economic conditions which may hit demand. West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude was down 14 cents to $80.47 a barrel at 2241 GMT. On Wednesday, Brent crude futures settled up 5 cents, or 0.1%, at $84.99 a barrel.

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Interest rates are likely to soften considerably from current levels, the analyst also noted. By Yasin Ebrahim Investing.com — The S&P 500 slumped Monday as further data pointing to further signs of inflation pressures weighed on sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next… By Yasin Ebrahim Investing.com — The S&P 500 advanced after cutting losses Thursday, shrugging off fears about the economy despite further signs that the labor market is cooling ahead of… The price-to-book ratio is a company’s current market price to its Book Value.

The ratio is used for evaluating companies and to find out whether they are overvalued or undervalued. Das pointed out that the RBI has been at work in taking macro and micro-prudential measures to ensure financial stability. “Our supervisory system has also been strengthened in recent years. The Indian banking system remains sound and healthy with strong capital and liquidity buffers including asset quality and PCR,” he said. Follow the latest breaking news and developments from India and around the world with Hindustan Times’ newsdesk. From politics and policies to the economy and the environment, from local issues to national events and global affairs, we’ve got you covered. The National Stock Exchange has no securities on its F&O ban list for 6 April.

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He added that the central bank will continue to adopt measures to tame inflation in the country. “Regulators need to identify vulnerabilities to safeguard the stability of the financial system and lenders need to watch out for asset liability mismatch and capitalisation levels, he said.,” Das said on Thursday. The Repo Rate can be defined as the rate at which the central bank lends money to commercial banks or financial institutions operating in the market against government securities. Beyond that point, it is a combination of monetary policy and fiscal policy that works best.

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IndusInd Bank chief economist Gaurav Kapur also expects a 25-bps increase but predicts a change in the RBI’s stance from withdrawal of accommodation to neutral. The broad market view seems to be that since inflation is still very high in India, the RBI and the MPC is likely to have a 25 bps hike in interest rates, in repo rates. But what we saw from the last monetary policy meeting is that two of the three external members are already arguing in favour of a pause and so it is going to be a tough call. There is a case for a pause, particularly since the RBI’s limit on remit rather, on monetary policy and inflation control is confined to essentially the core inflation.

  • Goldman Sachs has also lifted its forecast for Brent to $95 a barrel by the end of the year and to $100 for 2024.
  • China’s Shanghai Composite traded flat, lower by 0.02% while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.03%.
  • With respect to rate-sensitive stocks, State Bank of India – India’s largest lender – gained over 1.5 per cent and was also trading as a top Nifty50 and Sensex gainer after the RBI’s policy decision.
  • They also expect the RBI to opt for a prolonged pause after April’s hike.
  • But at some point of time the RBI must pause and think whether the impact of its earlier rate hikes has percolated down into the system, the SBI’s chief economic adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh said recently.

That is a situation that the RBI and the government would want to avoid. Since several other important central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have raised rates recently, the RBI might feel pressured to follow suit. But many have wondered for how long the RBI can match the US Fed stroke by stroke in rate hikes.

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SGX Nifty traded in the red, indicating a lower start for the domestic Indian equity markets at 17,589, down 36 points. On Wednesday, markets extended their gaining streak, as Nifty rose 0.91% to 17,557, while Sensex added 582 points to settle at 59,689. “The domestic market is displaying resilience, unaffected by the weaker global peers, thanks to strong banks and NBFCs quarterly numbers and the windfall tax cut.

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It will remember how last year a heat wave had cut India’s wheat production, forcing a ban on wheat exports to calm local prices, which had already gone up due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Recent happenings can dash hopes of those who have been expecting that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) rate-setting panel, the Monetary Policy Committee , will take a pause in its April meeting tomorrow. At the same time, the MPC’s mandate is really about inflation control and so it is going to be a tough call. The RBI, of course, will always be cognisant of financial stability but the MPC will have to look at it only indirectly. Marathon Petroleum Corporation is listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. You’ll find the closing price, open, high, low, change and %change of the %NAME_TRANS% share for the selected range of dates.

RBI MPC to pause Nifty rally or index to surpass 17600? Check 8 things to know before market opens on 6 April

A US Fed https://1investing.in/ hike widens the gap with the rate in India thus putting pressure on the rupee. But at some point of time the RBI must pause and think whether the impact of its earlier rate hikes has percolated down into the system, the SBI’s chief economic adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh said recently. The Indian markets have also reacted in positive manner to the RBI’s policy decision as the benchmark indices – Sensex and Nifty50 – also turned green, up by 0.2 per cent – mainly aided by the rate-sensitive stocks and sectors. By Yasin Ebrahim Investing.com — The Dow cut some losses Thursday, but remained firmly in the red as growth sectors of the market including consumer and tech stocks floundered on fears that… Indian shares opened lower on Thursday, ahead of what many expect to be the Reserve Bank of India’s final interest rate hike in the current cycle.

Yes, you can buy Marathon Petroleum Corporation shares in India by simply opening an account with Scripbox. By Yasin Ebrahim Investing.com — The Dow closed sharply lower on the week and briefly fell into bear-market territory Friday as investors fret about the potential of a deeper and darker… By Yasin Ebrahim Investing.com — The Dow slipped further into bear-market territory Tuesday, as investors continue to digest a wave of remarks from Federal Reserve members pointing to… By Yasin Ebrahim Investing.com — The Dow slumped Monday as fresh data pointing to strength in the economy and further signs of inflation pressures stoked concerns about higher for longer…

The near term upside switching costs overviews for the Nifty is around and next levels for the next one week. Immediate support is placed at levels,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities. German engineering major Siemens is recording perhaps its best growth ever in India. The oldest multinational corporation in the country has been aggressively bidding for, and winning, contracts across segments, the latest being one for ₹26,000 crore from the Indian Railways. Minh Phu Seafood Corp. engages in the processing and exporting of seafood products.

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A tightening of money in the market must be supported by tightening of the fiscal situation too. The reverse situation shall also apply in the case of monetary loosening. Even in such cases, supporting the monetary loosening with fiscal measures would help.

Additionally, the recent US data revealed a softening in the labor market and declining factory orders, increasing the likelihood of a pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The RBI is expected to announce a 25-basis point rate hike in its policy announcement on Thursday before taking a pause, positive for the market,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services. Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said that the monetary policy committee has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent with readiness to act should the situation so warrant.

basis

The consensus is that if one considers the 10 year bond yields and adjusts for current inflation, then the real yield is well above 1%. The real yields look much better if you factor in expected inflation of 5.2%, but we will leave that aside for now. The bottom line is that the potential for rates to flatten or taper from here is much more than the probability that rates would go higher from here. MPC members have expressed apprehensions that taking terminal rates much higher from here could start impacting growth.

policy decision

“The MPC voted by 5 out of 6 majority to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with a target while focusing on growth,” RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. He added that the central bank is focused on the withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation. “Overall inflation is above target, and monetary policy can still be regarded as accommodative as per current rates,” he added. Along with the repo rate, the standing deposit facility rate is unchanged at 6.25 per cent.